Could Big Unit Be Last 300-Game Winner?

SF Giant Randy Johnson’s 299th career win last night against the Atlanta Braves put him on the door-step of the exclusive 300 Win Club. At age 45, and after 22 seasons in the big leagues, The Big Unit has worked long and hard to put himself in this position by over-coming back and knee surgeries along the way. Johnson can put himself into the history books with his next start, which should be next Wednesday at Washington. Facing the Nationals should provide Johnson a great chance of garnering the prized 300th win, thus becoming the 24th pitcher in MLB history to attain that level.

With 300 being within Johnson's grasp, the question is often asked, “who else has a chance to make that club, has the age of the 300-game winner come to an end?”

The top active pitchers in the game are Tom Glavine, Braves (305), Johnson (299), Jamie Moyer, Phillies (249), and Andy Pettitte, Yankees (219).

At age 46, the sun is setting on Moyer’s career. With 249 wins spread over 22 years he has little chance of picking up another 51 Ws. Pettitte, 36, signed a one-year deal at a smaller salary than he used to command, primarily to return to the Yankees this year to help them break in their new stadium in the Bronx. A family man of strong faith, he could be content to retire to Texas sometime soon and enjoy life with his wife and kids. He is 4-1 this year with a respectable 4.30 ERA, but can he, or will he, stay around long enough to earn another 81 wins?

The reason for the door to the 300 Club possibly closing forever is simple numbers. With today’s game being played with a 5-man starting pitching rotation, basic math tells us that 162 games divided by 5 starting pitchers = a max of 32.4 starting opportunities per pitcher. Keep in mind, even the best of arms miss at least a start of two for a variety of reasons, reducing the actual start number to 30 or less per season.

Before baseball started babying pitchers with pitch counts and reducing the overall workload throughout a season with a 5-man starting staff, a 4-man pitching rotation was the norm. Even a journalism major can figure out that 162 games divided among 4 pitchers provides a max of 40 starting opportunities per pitcher. 32 starts versus 40? Even if a pitcher goes .500 with those additional starts he would pick up another 4 wins per year. Stretch that over, let’s just say, a 15 year-career and you have another 60 career wins.

Given the fact that Johnson will become the 24th all-time 300-game winner possibly as soon as next week, and the next active pitcher with any legitimate chance is Pettitte, who needs to average 21 wins over the next four years (or 17 over five years, etc.), the exclusivity of the 300 Club could remain undisturbed for quite some time.

NFL COLTS' TRANSITION BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING

When Tony Dungy announced his retirement earlier this year as head coach of the NFL's Indianapolis Colts, the team's accomplished general manager, Bill Polian, already had a plan in place and everyone kept marching on without missing a step. Jim Caldwell, an old Iowa Hawkeye teammate of mine, with whom I also had the pleasure of coaching with for a year on the college level, was taking the reins. Jim had been Peyton Manning's quarterback coach since 2002 and assistant head coach in recent years for Dungy.

But, a week or so ago the offensive staff took a big hit, two in fact, when offensive coordinator Tom Moore and offensive line coach Howard Mudd, both critical factors in the Colts incredible offensive production since 1998, tendered their resignation because of a very recent, abrupt change in the NFL coaches pension arrangement. Moore, 70, and Mudd, 67, would both have risked losing part of their hard-earned retirement money due to a change in policy. Evidently, the league owners voted to make the teams' contributions to the pension plan non-mandatory. Larry Kennan, who represents NFL assistants, said no one saw this coming and his group was not kept in the loop at all.

So, along with a new head coach, who also served as QB coach, the Colts offense will also have a new play-caller/coordinator replacing Moore and a new OL coach stepping up for Mudd. That's three major position changes. The Colts did the wise thing and stayed inside by elevating former WR coach Clyde Christensen to coordinator and former offensive quality control/OL assistant Pete Metzelaars to the lead OL post. There is no learning curve for either coach, just an exponential increase in the amount of responsibility.

Just as Tony Dungy set the mood and tempo for the Colts going about their business being a very successful team for most of the 21st century, Jim Caldwell will follow that lead in many ways by keeping the ship steady, worrying about taking care of business right now and not worrying about the past or future things that can't be controlled. He'll keep the team focused and motivated. That's why Indy put a plan in place for him to become their head coach rather than having to dodge offers each of the last three years from other NFL teams looking for a new boss.

Do not underestimate the profound effect Bill Polian has had on the two NFL teams where he has served as general manager--the Buffalo Bills and the Colts. Prior to his keen eye for talent, and his ability to effectively draft, trade, and structure contracts showed up at either front office, neither organization experienced the consistency and success that they enjoyed while on his watch.

Aside from Manning's long-time favorite target, WR Marvin Harrison, moving on, the Colts should not look very different when they line up offensively this fall. What remains to be seen is how well the OL protects the passer and opens holes for the running backs, along with the play-selection in critical down and distance situations. The good news for Colts fans who might be a bit concerned is that Manning is, in fact, the ultimate "maestro" running the offense and handling adjustments once the team breaks the huddle and goes to the line of scrimmage.

DUKE BB's PAULUS TO PLAY FOOTBALL AT SU

It was sometime in the winter of 2003-04 when I received a phone call in my football coach's office at the University of Kansas. It was from a guy named Dave Paulus from Syracuse, NY. He wanted to tell me about his son, a quarterback at Christian Brothers Academy (CBA). Greg Paulus was in his junior year and starting to narrow his scope on potential colleges where he might continue his career.

We did not actively recruit the Northeast at Kansas at that time, but we followed up on all leads, and I got this one because Syracuse is just 35 miles from my hometown. I heard the proud father talk about his son's two-sport achievements and how he was only going to look at schools that had nationally competitive basketball programs and a chance to play football, if that's what he ultimately decided to do. Having had a lot of conversations with fathers who often tried to act as agents, I asked if I could talk to the high school coach and if he could send some tape for us to evaluate right away. Not a problem.

What I learned was the Paulus family was as legitimate as could be. Greg's high school football tape showed why he was a three-time all-state selection at that point (a fourth to come) and his coach raved about his intelligence, character and certainly his football ability, too. Greg Paulus went on to be the 2004 Gatorade National Player of the Year and was 2nd Team All-USA Today as a QB. It's no secret that he went on to Duke where he was a two-time captain, earned several academic recognitions along the way, and was a key player in one of the nation's premier basketball programs.

Having exhausted his four years of basketball eligibility by not red-shirting, and by graduating from Duke about a week ago, Paulus set himself up for a very unique situation. He could petition the NCAA to use his fifth year of eligibility to play another sport--football, at another school. After doing his homework and talking to several different schools Paulus has decided to go home and pursue a master's degree at Syracuse University and try to make it as a QB on new Coach Doug Marrone's team.

What are the odds that a very good athlete, who played nothing but basketball over the last four years, can pick up a football and compete for playing time in a Division I program? The odds seems somewhat steep, but then again, maybe not. SU's coaching change in the winter means that competition among players at all positions is pretty bunched up because no one has a great knowledge of the new systems, nor have they had a lot of one-on-one coaching from the new staff to help cement spots on the depth chart. Paulus was not part of the Orange for spring ball, so he missed 15 practices and at least that many meetings watching tape and learning the system. But, he is incredibly savvy, has intelligence and play-making ability on the field, and he is a mature, tested-under-fire, competitor.

Sure it's been a while since he last called a play in a huddle or engineered a winning scoring drive on the gridiron, but don't think for a minute that Greg Paulus hasn't had this possible transition to football on his mind for quite some time. The Orange is a good situation for Paulus to compete. They do not have a proven, solid #1 QB, and their offense can get a shot in the arm from Paulus, who was equally adept at CBA throwing or running the football.

The NCAA should allow the move. Paulus represents exactly what college student-athletes should do--give everything they have to their university in terms of effort in the classroom, on the field of competition, as well as in the community. He earned his degree and he has earned the opportunity to use that fifth year of eligibility as he chooses.

If nothing else, the Greg Paulus story will give people who follow ACC basketball and those who follow Big East football something to track as the '09 football season unfolds a little later this year. If anyone can make such a move and make it work, Paulus' combination of physical talent, and the intangibles that are characteristic of winner, will give him a chance to beat the odds.

TAMPA BAY RAYS STILL LOOKING FOR MAGIC

Last year's Tampa Bay Rays were the Cinderellas of Major League Baseball as they reversed a decade long tradition of being bottom-feeders in the American League East. They wore the glass slipper all the way through the AL Championship en route to the World Series before the clock struck 12:00 in the form of the Philadelphia Phillies.

This year's version of the Rays was celebrated for three straight night's at Tropicana Field as they opened their home season vs. the Evil Empire (a.k.a. New York Yankees). One night it's the raising of the AL title banner, another night it's the handing out of World Series rings, all 37,000 fans getting a replica ring, and more, and more.

With some off-season tinkering of their roster, baseball pundits joined the Rays' faithful in projecting this team to be as good or better than last year's Rays. Right now, there is no joy in Mudville. Tampa Bay is 16-20 and have a meager 4-7 mark against the teams who occupy last place in their divisions.

Could a hangover last from fall of '08 all the way into spring of '09? Can an organization that went from "worst to first" and provided a feel-good story for all of baseball slip back into their old form so quickly...and with essentially the same team? There is no doubting the old adage that says, "baseball is a marathon, not a sprint." With just about 25% of the season in the books there is still plenty of time for the Rays to re-kindle the fire, find their mojo, or do whatever it was they did to play like a bona-fide champion last year.

Seeing the Rays struggle in the first quarter of the season makes you better appreciate the great teams throughout all of sports who built dynasties, sustained a high level of success over time, and were able to handle the notoriety, pressure and expectations that was thrust upon them because of that success.