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Friday, January 22, 2010

BEST SUNDAY OF NFL SEASON THIS WEEKEND

The best Sunday of the entire National Football League season, which features the AFC and NFC championship games, will be played this weekend with the two conference champions advancing to play for the ultimate prize—the Vince Lombardi Trophy, signifying Super Bowl champions. Here’s an inside look at the two match-ups.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME—Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints, site Super Dome

KEYS FOR MINNESOTA—The Vikings need to be able to run the ball effectively to off-set the tremendous crowd noise that heavily impacts pass audibles at the line of scrimmage by the QB. If the Vikes can go to the line, get set quickly, snap the ball and get RB Adrian Peterson rolling it will take the crowd out of the game. It will also allow Bret Favre to have the entire play-action pass playbook open for use.

The Viking defense is pretty salty up front. They have great size and strength in the middle with their defensive tackles and they have excellent athleticism and speed to rush the pass off the edge. The LBs are solid and run well. If the Vikings can dominate up front and make the Saints more one-dimensional, meaning pass only, the advantage goes to them. Drew Brees is good, but not nearly as good if he has a run game to complement his passing game. Look for the Saints to have to throw quick, shorter or play-action passes early to keep the heat off Brees.

KEYS FOR NEW ORLEANS—The Saints are improved defensively over the last couple of years, but they are still a distance from being a dominating unit. Facing a balanced attack like Minnesota, they are going to have to find a way to get off the field by either creating turnovers or making the Vikes punt without achieving first downs to help create decent field position for Brees and the offense.

Offensively, the Saints will need to really mix it up. They will throw quick passes and screens to keep Brees safe, and then take some deep, downfield shots to Marcus Colston vs. an average Viking secondary. Reggie Bush is an X-factor. If Coach Sean Payton can find a way to get Busch on the perimeter to stretch the defense, just like Minnesota does with Percy Harvin, that will loosen things up a bit.

LAST WORD—This is a great match-up and special teams will have a huge impact. Saints have Busch to make potential big plays and the Vikings have Harvin. The difference could be the kickers and Minnesota’s Ryan Longwell had a fabulous year hitting 26-28 FGs, including 2-2 over 50 yards.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME—New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts, site Lucas Oil Field (dome)

KEYS FOR NEW YORK—This team has won with strong defense and a punishing run game. The Jets offensive line boasts four former first round picks among the five starters. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez cannot carry the load, so the O-line and RBs Shon Green and Thomas Jones have to keep slamming away to eat some clock and move the chains. Rex Ryan’s defense is a headache for any opposing offense and if the Jets are to pull the upset on the road they need to hit Peyton Manning early and often, trying to off-set his rhythm as well as seeking turnovers. The Jets are content to win ugly. That means dictating tempo on “D”, eating clock while putting up enough points so that the defense can cover, and not turning the ball over.

KEYS FOR INDY—There is no one better adjusting to, and being productive, vs. the blitz than QB Peyton Manning. That being said, he will have to connect on quickies and find the best one-on-one match-up with the little time he’ll be afforded. Indy was 32nd in the league in run offense. There is no way they run the ball effectively, but they need to pop a few in there to take advantage of the hard-charging Gang Green defense to keep them honest. If Manning can stay upright and not be pressured into throwing into impossible coverage, the Colts will be OK. But, that is a big if. Defensively the Colts are like the Saints, improved over the last two years, but still not a unit strikes fear into their opponent. The Colts have gotten good play in stopping the run out of their safeties, which they will do again vs. the Jets. But, they can’t give up the deep play-action ball for a home run due to their over-aggressive run defense mind-set. The strength of the Colts defense, their quick, agile pass-rushing DEs, are really not a factor against this type of Jets offense.

LAST WORD—Jets QB Sanchez threw 20 INTs vs. 12 TDs this season. He completed only 53% of his passes. If the Jets defense gets Manning off of his game early and New York can muster any kind of points because of it, thus, not saddling Sanchez with the heavy responsibility of having to win the game himself-- the underdog could conceivably steal this one. On the other hand, you live by the sword, you die by the sword. If the Jets pressure package gives up a couple of big plays with their sell-out style of defense, it'll be uphill for their offense. I still like Indy, but I am not betting lunch on this one.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Big Ten Arrow Up, Pac-10 Arrow Down, ACC Up Slightly in Bowl Action

There are still a number of big bowl games to come today and in this coming week, but at this point it's easy to draw some conclusions about what certain conferences did or didn't do with their post-season opportunities.

The arrow is pointing up for the Big Ten with Ohio State's big win over Oregon in the Rose Bowl, Penn State's topping LSU in the Capitol One, and Wisconsin stopping Miami 20-14 on the Champs' Bowl. As a point of comparison, last year the Big Ten struggled with a 1-6 bowl mark, the lone victory turned in by Iowa. The conference stubbed their collective toes in two games decided by a total of three points this past week. Northwestern lost to Auburn by two and Minnesota finished the year 6-7 by losing to Iowa State. The Midwesterners still have two games to go--in tonight's Alamo Bowl Michigan State tangles with Mike Leach-less Texas Tech and on the Orange Bowl stage Iowa takes on Georgia Tech this Tuesday night.

The arrow is pointing down on the Pac-10. The west coast conference schools finished the bowl season a disappointing 2-5. Their lone wins were UCLA having to furiously comeback to beat Temple (believe that?), 30-21, and USC bested Boston College 24-13. In a very entertaining Rose Bowl Oregon's point-a-minute offense was kept in check and fell to Ohio State 26-17 . From the bad news department, the conference took two real solid body shots delivered by the Mountain West Conference, a non-BCS league, but, nevertheless, one that should be. Cal was popped by Utah 37-27, and BYU ripped Oregon State 44-20. One of the better bowl games featured Stanford vs. Oklahoma in the Sun Bowl. The Big 12 Sooners beat the Cardinal, 31-27. But, the game that took a big swipe at the Pac 10's power ranking was another Big 12 team, Nebraska, totally dominating Arizona 33-0 in the Holiday Bowl.

The ACC arrow is slightly up, but their final game pitting their GT Yellowjackets against Iowa in the Orange will determine the conference's finish. They are 4-3 right now, but the only game that was a mild upset was Florida State sending venerable head coach Bobby Bowden out with class in a 33-21 win over West Virginia. Other wins for the conference were Auburn edging Northwestern in overtime, Clemson topping Kentucky 21-13, and Virginia Tech handling Tennessee impressively, 37-14. The ACC didn't get any help from North Carolina who lost to Pitt 19-17, and the previously mentioned games with Miami losing to Wisconsin and BC dropping their contest to USC.

By the end of next week we'll have a new national champion and the final wrap-up on other conferences like the Big East, Big 12 and SEC. Stay tuned.