SF Giant Randy Johnson’s 299th career win last night against the Atlanta Braves put him on the door-step of the exclusive 300 Win Club. At age 45, and after 22 seasons in the big leagues, The Big Unit has worked long and hard to put himself in this position by over-coming back and knee surgeries along the way. Johnson can put himself into the history books with his next start, which should be next Wednesday at Washington. Facing the Nationals should provide Johnson a great chance of garnering the prized 300th win, thus becoming the 24th pitcher in MLB history to attain that level.
With 300 being within Johnson's grasp, the question is often asked, “who else has a chance to make that club, has the age of the 300-game winner come to an end?”
The top active pitchers in the game are Tom Glavine, Braves (305), Johnson (299), Jamie Moyer, Phillies (249), and Andy Pettitte, Yankees (219).
At age 46, the sun is setting on Moyer’s career. With 249 wins spread over 22 years he has little chance of picking up another 51 Ws. Pettitte, 36, signed a one-year deal at a smaller salary than he used to command, primarily to return to the Yankees this year to help them break in their new stadium in the Bronx. A family man of strong faith, he could be content to retire to Texas sometime soon and enjoy life with his wife and kids. He is 4-1 this year with a respectable 4.30 ERA, but can he, or will he, stay around long enough to earn another 81 wins?
The reason for the door to the 300 Club possibly closing forever is simple numbers. With today’s game being played with a 5-man starting pitching rotation, basic math tells us that 162 games divided by 5 starting pitchers = a max of 32.4 starting opportunities per pitcher. Keep in mind, even the best of arms miss at least a start of two for a variety of reasons, reducing the actual start number to 30 or less per season.
Before baseball started babying pitchers with pitch counts and reducing the overall workload throughout a season with a 5-man starting staff, a 4-man pitching rotation was the norm. Even a journalism major can figure out that 162 games divided among 4 pitchers provides a max of 40 starting opportunities per pitcher. 32 starts versus 40? Even if a pitcher goes .500 with those additional starts he would pick up another 4 wins per year. Stretch that over, let’s just say, a 15 year-career and you have another 60 career wins.
Given the fact that Johnson will become the 24th all-time 300-game winner possibly as soon as next week, and the next active pitcher with any legitimate chance is Pettitte, who needs to average 21 wins over the next four years (or 17 over five years, etc.), the exclusivity of the 300 Club could remain undisturbed for quite some time.
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I agree that it will be a while until we see anyone become the next 300, but as far as potential winners go, I immediately look at Jake Peavy and Tim Lincecum. Peavy is going to be 28 this year and has 91 wins thus far. Who knows if he'll have the longevity of some of these other guys, but he's already notched a Cy Young and won ERA titles. Lincecum is the other option, the youngest to win the Cy Young since Doc Gooden, and he'll be 25 this year. His frame suggests that he won't be able to pitch into his 40's like the Unit, who has more than a foot on Tiny Tim!
ReplyDeleteLincecum has a chance...but not playing for the Giants! Great pitcher's park, but no offense on the horizon. He could post a 2.25 ERA and go 11-15
ReplyDeleteMy brother & I talked about a variation of this specific baseball (de)evolution just the other day. I remarked to him how Rick Sutcliffe was chatting with Nolan ryan on a weeknight telecast of the Rangers vs Yankees. It struck me how great Ryan really was as time passes..how he had 7 no-hitters and 12 one-hitters, pitched into his mid 40s...which just floors me when you think about it..but it also indicates how he had 19 CGs just counting those gems. These days most pitchers will go their whole career and not even get half that many. Pitchers get managed by pitch count more and more. It used to be based on a troubled arm, elbow or shoulder..not as a preventative measure. Its the Risk Averse approach to managing and its driven by the $$ invested in a good or potentially good pitcher (see JABA Rules). That guy is a horse and is treated like a fledgling little leaguer. Editorial comment....MLB has lost aura and mystique because of this "risk managed' approach. MLB needs guys who are "studs"... who can go the distance...who strike fear.. Guys like Seaver, Gibson, Fergie Jenkins, Marichail, Ryan, JR Richard. Just a thought.
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